The college football world was wishing for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, offering plenty of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't appear to think so. A minimum of in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been an especially popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the money is can be found in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text message to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
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The enthusiasm for the Longhorns reaches the futures market too. Keep in mind that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp wagerers. The Athletic spoke with several bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really respected gamer."
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Although reputable cash has come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public gamblers are stacking on Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in the area. We talked with several bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has approached slightly to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at the majority of sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I would not be amazed if this line approaches a bit more before kickoff, but I currently invite any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd opportunity it desired. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?
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No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These groups met back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked with before the CFP first round had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before reputable cash pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A a little greater bulk of wagers at numerous sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the money has actually can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the four come .
"We did take some highly regarded money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The overall has actually increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the most significant move of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over up until now.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp bettors, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had actually seen considerable buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
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The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred turned in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line turn? Put simply, the sports betting action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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